Mortality Improvement: Trends and Future Projections

Historical Mortality Improvements

Over the past century, mortality rates have declined substantially across most age groups in developed countries. Medical advances, public health initiatives, and improved living standards have driven these improvements. Actuaries track these trends using mortality improvement scales published by the SOA, such as Scale MP-2021, which provide annual rates of improvement by age and gender.

Projecting Future Improvements

Projecting future mortality improvement is challenging because past trends may not continue. The SOA's Mortality Improvement Scale uses a blend of short-term observed trends and long-term assumptions. Key considerations include the potential impact of obesity, opioid use, antibiotic resistance, and medical breakthroughs like gene therapy. For pension and annuity valuations, mortality improvement assumptions can change liabilities by 5% to 15%, making this one of the most consequential assumptions actuaries set.